Decoding Eurasia's Future: Raisina Dialogue 2022

Decoding Eurasia's Future: Raisina Dialogue 2022

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. The Long-Term Drivers of the Russian-Chinese Relationship
   • The Influence of Western Dual Containment Policy
   • The Role of the China-Russia Border
   • Economic Complementarity
   • Similarities in Domestic Political Regimes
3. The Impact of the Ukraine Invasion
   • China's Pragmatic Approach to the Relationship
   • Chinese Companies' Reluctance in Dealing with Sanctions
   • Potential Future Deals with China
4. Russia's Identity and Position on the Global Stage
   • Eurasian Power or Inward-Looking Country?
   • The Relevance of Russia Beyond Military and Natural Resources
5. The Presence of a Community of Russians Abroad
   • Different Perspectives and Identities
   • Impact on Russia's Image
6. The Durability of the Russian Regime and the Effectiveness of Sanctions
   • The Power Dynamics within the Russian Elite
   • The Unlikelihood of an Off-Ramp in the Current Political Climate
7. Conclusion

The Growing Relationship Between Russia and China: Drivers and Implications

In recent years, much Attention has been focused on the evolving relationship between Russia and China. This alliance, often seen as a response to Western containment policies, has raised questions about the long-term drivers of their increasing closeness. In this article, we will explore the various factors that have contributed to this partnership and examine the implications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on their bilateral relationship.

The Long-Term Drivers of the Russian-Chinese Relationship

The influence of Western dual containment policy has played a significant role in driving Russia and China closer. As the United States pushes against both Chinese assertiveness and Russian aggression, Moscow and Beijing have found common ground in their shared grievances. This narrative suggests that their alignment is more a byproduct of opposition to the West rather than a genuine partnership. However, the foundations of this relationship run deeper.

The China-Russia border, once a source of tension during the China-Soviet split, has now become a symbol of peace and cooperation. The pragmatic leadership in both capitals recognized the need to settle territorial issues and focus on other priorities. Today, this long continental border serves as a foundational Pillar of their partnership.

Another key driver is economic complementarity. While Russia possesses abundant natural resources, it requires capital and technology. China, on the other HAND, has a surplus of capital and advanced technology but lacks natural resources. This economic match made in heaven has fostered a mutually beneficial partnership.

Furthermore, the similarities in the domestic political regimes of Russia and China have brought them closer together. Both countries exhibit an authoritarian nature, which aligns their positions on issues such as internet sovereignty and global governance. This shared authoritarianism has further strengthened their bond.

The Impact of the Ukraine Invasion

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has undoubtedly affected the political relationship between Moscow and Beijing. However, it has not severed the ties altogether. China, being a pragmatic actor, understands the importance of maintaining its partnership with Russia while still relying on the US and Europe for market access, technology, and capital.

To navigate this delicate situation, China has developed a nuanced approach. On the surface, it supports peace, Ukraine's territorial integrity, and sovereignty. It does not recognize Crimea as part of Russia or the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Simultaneously, it criticizes unilateral sanctions and the US's push to expand its military alliances. However, China cherry-picks these talking points Based on its audience, tailoring its response accordingly.

While the West attempts to pressure China into taking a more decisive stance, China remains cautious. It calculates its moves meticulously, taking AdVantage of the growing disparity between Russia and the West. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine presents an opportunity for China to strengthen its leverage over Russia and eventually dictate the terms of any future deals.

Russia's Identity and Position on the Global Stage

The question of Russia's identity plays a significant role in its relationship with China and its standing on the global stage. While some argue that Russia's identity is no longer European, the reality is more complex. Russia's identity extends beyond Europe, encompassing its vast territory and its role as a major player in global affairs.

However, Russia's ties with Europe have been strained in recent years. Western companies are leaving Russia, and cultural linkages are diminishing. Russia's inward-looking approach has limited its ability to diversify and tap into alternative sources of influence. In this Context, China and India have emerged as potential partners for Russia, though their engagement is also constrained by sanctions and technological limitations.

Looking ahead, the role of Russia as a global player is uncertain. While it possesses nuclear capabilities and a substantial military, its future relevance is increasingly questionable. Economic limitations, sanctions, and geopolitical dynamics could potentially reduce Russia to the status of a regional power, akin to Iran, rather than a key global player.

The Presence of a Community of Russians Abroad

There is a growing community of Russians living abroad, who find themselves unable or unwilling to work within the confines of Russia. These individuals, often with patriotic sentiments, Seek opportunities in a globalized economy. However, it is essential to recognize that not all Russians within Russia support the regime or blindly believe propaganda.

The suppression of independent media and the limitations on access to information make it challenging to assess the extent of dissent within Russia. The widespread use of VPNs reflects the desire for unrestricted access to information and suggests that many Russians do not Align with the regime's narrative.

Despite the challenges faced by Russians abroad and the negative impact on Russia's image, it is uncertain whether these individuals will return to their home country. The durability of the Russian regime and the limited avenues for change suggest that the current dynamic will persist for the foreseeable future.

The Durability of the Russian Regime and the Effectiveness of Sanctions

The Russian regime, headed by Vladimir Putin and supported by powerful individuals with military backgrounds, remains resilient despite external pressures. The imposition of tough sanctions has not significantly affected those who hold real power in Russia. As such, there is little potential for bottom-up pressure or internal cracks within the elite.

Moreover, the economic challenges posed by sanctions have not led to a change in the regime's course. The individuals in power, including the governor of the central bank, Continue to navigate these difficulties skillfully. The transition from a prosperous global Russia to a more isolated and inward-looking power may not be smooth, but it is unlikely to prompt a reassessment of the regime's direction.

In conclusion, the evolving relationship between Russia and China is driven by a combination of factors, including shared grievances against the West and the pursuit of common interests. While the invasion of Ukraine has posed challenges, it has not fundamentally Altered the nature of their partnership. Russia's identity and role on the global stage remain ambiguous and uncertain, and the presence of a community of Russians abroad continues to Shape perceptions of Russia. However, the durability of the regime and the limited impact of sanctions suggest that significant changes are unlikely in the near future.