Africa's Potential Superpower: The East African Federation

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. The East African Federation
   • 2.1 Composition and Potential
   • 2.2 Population and Landmass
   • 2.3 Cities and Official Language
   • 2.4 Economy and Growth Potential
3. History of Cooperation
   • 3.1 Early Unification Attempts
   • 3.2 Revival of East African Community
4. Steps towards Integration
   • 4.1 Customs Union
   • 4.2 Common Market
   • 4.3 Monetary Union
   • 4.4 Political Federation
5. Challenges and Roadblocks
   • 5.1 Economic Disparities
   • 5.2 Currency Convergence
   • 5.3 Political Tensions
   • 5.4 Delayed Timeline
6. Potential Inclusion of the Democratic Republic of Congo
   • 6.1 Implications and Benefits
   • 6.2 Considerations and Challenges
7. Conclusion

The East African Federation: Africa's Potential Superpower

The concept of the East African Federation, a proposed country comprising the six members of the East African Community (EAC) and potentially the Democratic Republic of Congo, has gained Attention as a possible contender for Africa's first superpower. This envisioned federation would bring together Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan, creating one of the largest countries in the world. While still in its early stages, the East African Federation holds promise due to its population, landmass, and economic potential.

Composition and Potential

The East African Federation would consist of Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Sudan, all Current members of the East African Community. With a combined population of approximately 195 million people, it would become the Second most populous country in Africa, trailing only Nigeria. The landmass of the federation would span around two and a half million square kilometers, making it the largest in Africa and the 10th largest globally.

Population and Landmass

The prospective federation's most prominent city would be Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, with a population of around 7 million people. However, the capital would likely be Arusha, a smaller city in Tanzania near the Kenyan border, which currently serves as the administrative headquarters of the EAC. English would be the official language, while Swahili would likely serve as the lingua franca. The currency for the federation would probably be the East African Shilling, previously utilized by Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda.

Economy and Growth Potential

Although the East African Federation would initially have a relatively modest GDP of less than $224 billion, placing it around 49th in the world, there are grounds for optimism. East Africa has consistently been the fastest-growing region on the continent, with countries like Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda experiencing impressive annual GDP growth rates. If this trend continues, the federation could rapidly become a prosperous country.

The GDP per capita of the East African Federation is currently around $1,150, ranking it approximately 180th globally. However, with sustained growth and increased economies of Scale, the federation has the potential to ascend to becoming Africa's next superpower. While economic challenges and disparities exist, the region's progress and growth rates offer hope for a prosperous future.

History of Cooperation

The idea of unifying East African countries is not entirely new. Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were once united as Britain's East African Colony in 1919, which exhibited initial steps towards cooperation. Various iterations of regional organizations followed, such as the East African High Commission and the East African Common Services Organization. The modern East African Community was founded in 1967, initially focusing on customs and currency union.

Steps towards Integration

The East African Federation proposed a four-step plan: a customs union, a common market, a monetary union, and finally, a political federation. The member countries made progress by implementing a customs union in 2005 and forming a common market in 2010. However, challenges remain in achieving full monetary and political integration.

The countries within the EAC, excluding South Sudan, have harmonized their currencies to converge and establish a common monetary policy. Efforts toward a political federation were accelerated, aiming for implementation alongside the monetary union. A committee was established in 2018 to draft a regional constitution, with a target for ratification by 2023. However, delays, funding issues, and political tensions have hindered the process, making the 2023 deadline increasingly unlikely.

Challenges and Roadblocks

The East African Federation faces several challenges on its path to integration. Economic disparities between member countries pose a hurdle, as some nations may be more developed than others. Additionally, currency convergence remains complex due to exchange rate fluctuations and the presence of distinct national currencies. Political tensions between countries, exemplified by boycotts and accusations, further complicate the process. Delays and inadequate funding have also slowed down progress, casting doubt on the projected timeline.

Potential Inclusion of the Democratic Republic of Congo

In 2019, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) expressed interest in joining the EAC, which would significantly impact the federation's status. The DRC, with its massive size and population of approximately 285 million people, would nearly double the area of the federation, making it the seventh-largest country globally. While the DRC faces economic challenges, its vast natural resources and strategic location would bring new opportunities. However, the inclusion of the DRC presents considerations and potential challenges that need careful examination.

Conclusion

While the realization of the East African Federation may face obstacles, the potential for a united and prosperous East Africa remains compelling. The region's history of cooperation and recent progress toward integration provide a foundation for future endeavors. With continued economic growth and strategic decisions, the East African Federation could become Africa's next superpower, solidifying its status on the global stage.