Bitcoin Price Analysis and Predictions - Technical and Elliott Wave Analysis

Table of Contents

1. Introduction
2. Short-Term Bullish Scenario
3. Short-Term Bearish Scenario
4. Current Structure of Bitcoin
5. Uncertainty in the Wave Count
6. Possible Ending Diagonal Pattern
7. Alternative Wave Count
8. Expectations for the Fifth Wave
9. Clues from Higher Lows
10. Short-Term Volatility and Support Levels
11. Short-Term Bearish Scenario
12. Bullish Scenario with Deeper Pullback
13. Defense of Assumptions
14. Unusual Structure and Bullish Hints
15. Potential Extension in the Fifth Wave
16. Shallow Pullbacks in Third Wave Rallies
17. Importance of Core Positions
18. Danger of Shorting the Crypto Market
19. Conclusion

Analyzing Bitcoin's Short-Term Outlook and Wave Count

Bitcoin's short-term outlook remains uncertain, with both bullish and bearish scenarios at play. In the last video, I discussed the overall bullish case for Bitcoin, which includes a short-term bullish scenario. Currently, the short-term bullish case is preferred, as long as the support level holds. However, recent price action has created some confusion in the wave count.

Short-Term Bullish Scenario

In the short-term bullish scenario, Bitcoin is expected to rally in a wave 5, building on the previous wave 4 correction. The current structure suggests a turning point to the upside, abandoning the previous wave count that anticipated a further downside. However, this structure is unusual, and we need to decipher its meaning. The wave count includes a wave 1 to the upside, followed by a wave 2 correction. The uncertainty arises with the current wave, possibly an A wave down, followed by an overshooting B wave, and the expectation of a C wave down. However, this c-wave must form an ending diagonal pattern, which has become unreliable due to today's spike.

Uncertainty in the Wave Count

The five-wave move down has raised doubts about the expected one, two, three, four, and five wave pattern. Ideally, another low, either at 29,734 or 29,077, is needed to fulfill the c-wave ABC flat pattern in Wave 4 before proceeding higher in the fifth wave. However, a breakout to the upside remains a possibility, leading to a higher low and indicating the start of the fifth wave. Without a crystal ball, it's unclear whether an additional low or a higher low will precede the fifth wave. The expectation is currently Based on holding the 28,546 support level, which provides evidence for a completed alternative wave four.

Possible Ending Diagonal Pattern

If Bitcoin sustains above today's high and forms a higher low afterward, it would confirm the completion of the fourth wave at the alternative wave four label. In this scenario, Bitcoin would Continue its upward trajectory towards the 32k region. The primary scenario suggests one more high in a wave five, while the question remains whether another low will occur before the upward move or if Bitcoin will move up straight away. Clarity will come with the formation of a higher low, providing a clue for the future direction.

Clues from Higher Lows

The expectation, regardless of the short-term volatility, is that another fifth wave will occur as long as Bitcoin holds above the 28,546 level. The current price fluctuations are part of the short-term volatility, which is typical for small waves. The focus remains on achieving a higher high, with the bullish range extending down to 26,190.

Short-Term Bearish Scenario

The short-term bearish scenario can only become the primary scenario if Bitcoin breaks below the 28,546 support level. In this scenario, Bitcoin would form an a-wave, followed by a B wave (which may have already occurred), and then a sell-off in a c-wave down, forming a wave two correction. However, even in this bearish scenario, there is still a bullish outlook, as the price has a chance to turn around in a third wave rally between 26,191 and 28,100.

Bullish Scenario with Deeper Pullback

The possibility of a deeper pullback before rallying in the third wave is also a bullish scenario. Although the ideal scenario suggests the pullback occurring after the fifth wave, the current price region may require adjustments if Bitcoin continues to rise in a fifth wave. Nevertheless, the overall sentiment remains bullish.

Defense of Assumptions

The bullish assumption of Bitcoin holding support levels defends the belief that a larger Wave 2 correction finished on June 15th and that prices will push higher, regardless of short-term fluctuations. The 26,191 and 28,546 levels play crucial roles in determining the short-term bearish or bullish scenarios.

Unusual Structure and Bullish Hints

The current structure of Bitcoin is unconventional, indicating various bullish hints. The shallow wave 2 correction and the running correction as part of the fourth wave both suggest bullish Momentum. Additionally, the higher B wave in the corrective wave is a strong bullish indicator. These hints spark Curiosity about a potential extension in the fifth wave and the possibility of shallow pullbacks.

Potential Extension in the Fifth Wave

As We Are potentially in a third wave rally, Bitcoin could experience extended moves and shallow pullbacks. The analysis points towards the likelihood of being in a third wave, highlighting the need to account for the possibility of fewer pullbacks. However, it's essential to proceed cautiously and have a well-defined strategy.

Importance of Core Positions

In third wave rallies, core positions are critical as pullbacks may be shallow, making it dangerous to short the crypto market. While short-term volatility exists, holding strong support levels and being well positioned are prudent strategies to adopt.

Danger of Shorting the Crypto Market

At present, shorting the crypto market is risky due to the bullish sentiment and the potential for shallow pullbacks. Market participants should be cautious and consider the implications of a potentially extended move in the fifth wave. It is Never an easy task to predict market movements accurately, hence careful positioning is crucial.

In conclusion, the current short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain, with both bullish and bearish scenarios in play. The wave count presents challenges, with potential ending diagonal Patterns and alternative wave counts compounding the confusion. However, higher low formations and support levels provide clues for the future price trajectory. It's important to remain vigilant and adaptive to the market's behavior while positioning oneself strategically to capitalize on potential opportunities.