The No Landing Scenario | Cem Karsan |The Case for Structural Inflation
In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more. We also get some crumbs and get Cem's take on option dealer flows and the potential coming February window of weakness.
If you found this video valuable, you might also enjoy our other two interviews with Cem Karsan.
In our first interview, we take a deeper dive into his dealer positioning models and the basis for his macroeconomic framework. You can find that interview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMWRWn8SNzc
In our second interview, we looked at how Cem manages his personal portfolio
https://youtu.be/VHQpZIOpZlM
00:00 - Intro
02:26 - The drivers of structural inflation
06:14 - The challenge of the Fed's dual mandate
10:17 - There is no landing
13:11 - Fed rate cuts
15:30 - A potential resurgence in inflation
18:13 - Parallels to the 1970s
21:46 - Significant differences from the 1970s
27:52 - The risks of structured products
35:55 - The risks of the rise of 0DTE options
45:27 - Breadcrumbs and the February window of weakness
51:41 - The importance of thinking in probabilities
56:19 - Cem's biggest reason for worry and optimism
#cemkarsan #optionsinvesting #inflation #economy #macro
FOLLOW CEM ON TWITTER
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA
https://www.validea.com
FOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
FOLLOW JUSTIN
Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
社群媒體聆聽
Show Us Your Portfolio: Cem Karsan | How an Options Expert Builds His Personal Portfolio
In this episode we speak with Cem Karsan, the most popular guest from our first 200 episodes. But this time we changed things up and asked him to talk about how he manages his personal portfolio. Many investors are used to building their portfolios using long-term buy and hold allocations to stocks and bonds, but Cem turns that on its head and takes a very different approach. We talk about the principles that guide his investment strategy, how he thinks about portfolio construction, his views on inflation and a lot more. For followers of Cem, we also ask for some breadcrumbs on dealer positioning at the end too. If you found this video valuable, you might also enjoy our other interview with Cem Karsan. In that interview, we take a deeper dive into his dealer positioning models and the basis for his macroeconomic framework. You can find that interview here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMWRWn8SNzc&t=9s #cemkarsan #vanna #charm #gamma #optionsinvesting 00:00 - Intro 02:59 - the guiding principles of Cem's personal portfolio 05:22 - will Cem ever retire? 07:24 - the importance of time 10:39 - how Cem balances time frames in his portfolio 13:09 - how selling his market making business changed Cem's approach 15:32 - the future of the 60-40 portfolio 23:06 - how 60-40 portfolio investors should think about the current environment 25:38 - the outlook for active management going forward 27:17 - how Cem thinks about bonds 30:08 - evaluating active managers 31:15 - equity investing in an inflationary world 35:58 - how Cem thinks about valuation 40:29 - Cem's thoughts on international exposure 43:10 - Looking at drawdowns 46:36 - does long equity exposure make sense in the current regime? 48:12 - inflation and Fed policy 51:56 - assets that perform well in an inflationary environment 57:30 - the importance of getting the secular trend right 01:01:11 - the role of venture capital, private equity and real estate in Cem's portfolio 01:04:08 - things Cem spends money on that are not financially motivated 01:05:59 - some breadcrumbs on current dealer positioning 01:14:15 - the one lesson Cem would teach the average investor CEM'S PREVIOUS APPEARANCE ON THE PODCAST https://youtu.be/wMWRWn8SNzc SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW OUR BLOG https://blog.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
Show Us Your Portfolio: Mike Green | How a Macro Expert Manges His Own Portfolio
In this episode we talk to Simplify Asset Management's Mike Green about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss Mike's macro-based approach and how he has implemented it using an ETF strategy. We cover the unique components within his strategy and how Mike thinks about combining them together into a portfolio. We also talk about how working in the investment business impacts how Mike builds his portfolio, the importance of sabbaticals, his upcoming RV trip, how he is coping with his current lack of cooking tools and a lot more. 00:00 - Intro 02:36 - A high level look at how Mike thinks about his portfolio 05:38 - Mike's upcoming cross country RV trip 08:28 - The benefits of taking sabbaticals 12:33 - Simple vs. complex in investing 16:35 - Payoff structures vs. asset allocation 19:10 - Approaching your portfolio strategy with humility 23:04 - Should investors be scared of leverage? 25:27 - A unique approach to high yield debt investing 29:49 - Hedging interest rate risk 31:59 - How Mike's views on passive investing impact his portfolio construction 34:43 - Should valuations matter? 36:52 - How David Einhorn has evolved his views on valuation 40:24 - How Mike views international exposure 43:49 - The role of managed futures in Mike's portfolio 45:18 - Gold and volatility harvesting 48:01 - How Mike thinks about rebalancing 51:56 - What Mike would like to do in his portfolio that he can't yet 53:42 - Mike's approach to private equity and real estate 56:16 - Mike's views on crypto 59:28 - Mike's biggest investing mistake 01:04:36 - What Mike spends money on outside of investing 01:07:35 - The one lesson Mike would teach the average investor MORE ABOUT SIMPLIFY https://www.simplify.us/ FOLLOW MIKE ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/profplum99 SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
The No Landing Scenario | Cem Karsan |The Case for Structural Inflation
In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more. We also get some crumbs and get Cem's take on option dealer flows and the potential coming February window of weakness. If you found this video valuable, you might also enjoy our other two interviews with Cem Karsan. In our first interview, we take a deeper dive into his dealer positioning models and the basis for his macroeconomic framework. You can find that interview here. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wMWRWn8SNzc In our second interview, we looked at how Cem manages his personal portfolio https://youtu.be/VHQpZIOpZlM 00:00 - Intro 02:26 - The drivers of structural inflation 06:14 - The challenge of the Fed's dual mandate 10:17 - There is no landing 13:11 - Fed rate cuts 15:30 - A potential resurgence in inflation 18:13 - Parallels to the 1970s 21:46 - Significant differences from the 1970s 27:52 - The risks of structured products 35:55 - The risks of the rise of 0DTE options 45:27 - Breadcrumbs and the February window of weakness 51:41 - The importance of thinking in probabilities 56:19 - Cem's biggest reason for worry and optimism #cemkarsan #optionsinvesting #inflation #economy #macro FOLLOW CEM ON TWITTER https://twitter.com/jam_croissant SEE LATEST EPISODES https://www.validea.com/excess-returns-podcast FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL https://www.valideacapital.com FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA https://www.validea.com FOLLOW JACK Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094 FOLLOW JUSTIN Twitter: https://twitter.com/jjcarbonneau LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jcarbonneau
總共有 102 筆社群媒體資料需要解鎖才能查看